Artificial intelligence is undeniably the most incandescent economic engine of the decade. The figures are dizzying and paint a picture of spectacular growth, but the question of a possible bubble explosion is becoming increasingly insistent.
The colossal investments and stock market valuations that defy understanding are reminiscent of periods of euphoria, raising fears of a brutal backlash.
IA and stratospheric valuations: The era of excess
The sector is driven by giants with valuations that defy logic. Nvidia, the undisputed master of AI chips, has crossed a historic milestone, reaching the $\$5$ trillion mark on the stock market. For comparison, this capitalization now exceeds the cumulative Gross Domestic Product of major nations such as India, Japan, and the United Kingdom.
At the same time, the other technological behemoths are not far behind. Apple has also exceeded the symbolic $\$4$ trillion threshold. This deluge of money is accompanied by an unprecedented financial commitment from established players. Last quarter, Google, Meta, and Microsoft injected a staggering total of $\$78$ billion in investments, an 89% increase compared to the previous year. These massive expenditures are fueled by the promise of exponential future returns linked to supremacy in AI.
The anticipation of an OpenAI IPO in 2026 or 2027, with a potential valuation of a trillion dollars, confirms this frenzy. The AI economy is expanding rapidly, but it rests on foundations that are largely speculative, tied to the future rather than the present.
An “AI Crash” that could eclipse the year 2000
The real risk lies in innovation itself. Current valuations are based on the conviction that the dominant players will maintain their technological lead. But what would happen if, tomorrow or the day after, a new challenger managed a spectacular and unexpected breakthrough?Imagine the emergence of a new version of Chinese or Russian AI, or a little-known European or Indian player that simultaneously surpasses the flagships of Silicon Valley.
In the face of such an event, all hopes based on the current leaders would collapse. The questioning would be complete. We could witness a bubble collapse that would make the dot-com crash of the year 2000 seem like a mere rehearsal. The billions invested could then evaporate, calling into question the entirety of this spectacular economy.
The AI bubble may not burst tomorrow, but it is undeniably inflated by optimism. It would only take one event, whether a resounding failure or an unexpected success by an outsider, for the air to deflate, with stock market and economic consequences that could be unprecedented.
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